The dollar’s medium outlook has improved, but it approaches fresh hurdles

Posted on May 30, 2023 By Greg

Key developments in recent weeks include: A rebound in interest rates and bond yields. 2yr swap rates rose above the 4.0 to 4.5% range they were trading in for two months following the banking upheaval, rising to 4.76%.  10yr yields rose from a 3.3 to 3.6% range to 3.80%. US economic data has beat expectations.  […]

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UK govt sets a bonfire under its credibility; high real rates point to further stock market weakness

Posted on September 26, 2022 By Greg

Link to open full AmpGFX Report Overview   The Bloomberg dollar index had the largest weekly rise since the pandemic upheaval in 2020. The Fed reaffirmed a hawkish message. The FOMC SEP projected 125bp of further hikes this year to 4.4% and 4.6% in 2023. Real yields in major economies are at their high in […]

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A big week in FX; AUD may bounce

Posted on April 29, 2022 By Greg

Among many contenders, the biggest story of the week in financial markets is the melt-up in the USD. It has gone from strength to strength since around the middle of last week. The drivers have rotated from a drop in the CNY with covid lockdowns, a drop in the EUR on energy crisis fears, volatile […]

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Pandemic and Ukraine crisis kick-start a new era of inflation

Posted on March 6, 2022 By Greg

Back-to-back inflation shocks The global pandemic delivered a major shock to the global economy.  Just as we were coming to terms with the shockwaves of this crisis, the Ukraine war dealt another major shock. A key development from the first shock was inflation.  Policymakers reassured us that this would be transitory.  They changed their mind […]

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Fed speakers will be watched closely, dollar-bloc commodity central banks still ahead of the Fed

Posted on June 21, 2021 By Greg

Fed speakers may be key this week The dollar went on a rampage last week post the FOMC.  Weakness in the EUR after the still dovish ECB started a weak earlier. The FOMC meeting last week has been described by many market commentators as a significant hawkish surprise, signalling earlier expected rate hikes and the […]

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Which currency do you want to hold – gold, crypto or fiat?

Posted on June 21, 2019 By Greg

It appears central banks have pivoted towards delivering more policy easing to bolster inflation expectations that have plumbed new lows this year.  The Fed has the greatest scope to ease policy, and the prospect of deep rate cuts have undermined the USD.  However, the Fed is struggling to gain the initiative and appears to be […]

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A Spectacular Test of Endurance

Posted on October 8, 2018 By Greg

Hi All, I have just been on a bike tour in Provence France organised by my friends Pieter and Carolyn of Bike Plus Tours. My wife and I met Carolyn and Pieter in Breckenridge, where we all live most of the year, and we have become good friends. Carolyn is an Aussie, like us, but […]

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New Australian PM offers a path to AUD redemption

Posted on August 25, 2018 By Greg

The AUD sunk and then rebounded again on political developments this week.  The ascendency of Scott Morrison to PM offers the ruling party a road to redemption.  Morrison comes from the most senior ministry role of Treasurer and has built a strong reputation as a pragmatist in controversial posts in immigration and social services ministries.  […]

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Catch-Up! ECB/Fed, China and AUD melt-down

Posted on June 16, 2018 By Greg

An eventful week.  I was out on family business in Denver on Tuesday and Wednesday and felt like I have been trying to play catch-up through Thursday and Friday.  I’ve turned this into a blog post since it is already late Friday and I presume most of you are cruising into the weekend.  But it […]

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Aussie Latte in Sunny Colorado

Posted on May 26, 2018 By Greg

Hi Y’all, sorry that’s my attempt at being folksy. I’m not even from the south. This my blog#2; occasional free commentary, less formal, free-wheeling, D&M, mixing market thoughts with what’s happening in my world and updates on our business.   ECB Novocaine wears off The big moves in the last week or two were in […]

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