Latest AmpGFX Reports

Labour data may snap RBA policy tension

Posted on March 20th, 2019

Lower US rates and yields appear to be fuelling broad weakness in the USD and gains in EM assets over the last two weeks.  Global risk appetite is on an improving trend, suggesting hopes are high that easier central bank policies, in the US, China and globally, will stabilise global growth.   Gold continues to pay […]

ECB was the last straw, AUD’s hold onto 70 slipping

Posted on March 12th, 2019

While the downgrades to the ECB outlook may not have been unexpected, they appear to have been viewed as the last straw for EUR bulls.  EUR has failed to respond to lower US rates in recent months or a moderate recovery in global risk appetite.  An expectation that ECB rates policy normalisation may take much […]

Global manufacturing PMI slump at odds with equity and commodity price rebound

Posted on March 6th, 2019

The slump in the global manufacturing PMIs that is broad-based in major economies and alarming in Japan, Korea and Taiwan, appears to reflect a disruption in global trade that may relate to US tariff policy. Services PMIs, on the other hand, are relatively stable and have recovered recently, and may help the global economy avoid […]

Latest AmpGFX Real Time Briefings

Gold may rise on lower real yields; Canada leads fall in real yields; Australian inflation expectations slump

Posted on March 23rd, 2019

  The broad decline in global bond yields and curve flattening suggest that the market has become more concerned about weak global economic growth. The fall in yields is at odds with the rise in equity and commodity prices this year, but the later may have lost upward momentum. Safe haven currencies, gold and JPY, […]

Brexit sucking up oxygen from the FX market

Posted on March 14th, 2019

  Brexit fear diminishing boosting GBP and other currencies Eurozone IP rebounds, the first sign of stabilisation Pressure increases for a rate cut in Australia   Quick overview We can see a case for GBP to rise towards 1.40 helping recoveries in EUR and AUD, and weakening the USD more broadly.  But the outlook for […]

US economic deterioration a risk for the dollar

Posted on March 7th, 2019

The strength in the USD in recent weeks belies what appears to be a run of poor economic reports pointing to a significant slowdown in Q1, possible stalling. The US trade data suggest that US exporters have suffered a significant slowdown, as bad, or even worse than many other countries. US employment indicators show that […]