Latest AmpGFX Reports

Bond yields rope-a-dope and fight back

Posted on April 15th, 2019

The market absorbed more negative news on the global economy last week, including the IMF forecast downgrade, pessimistic ECB, trade threats by the US towards Mexico and Europe. However, by end week, bond yields, risk assets and the EUR were stronger, suggesting the market has built-in a quite negative scenario and may respond more to […]

Watch out for dovish noises from the Fed and RBA

Posted on April 10th, 2019

We see scope for dovish noises from the FOMC minutes and Fed speakers.  The Fed appears to be in the process of shifting towards adopting an average inflation target, which should make them more sanguine if inflation rises above the 2% target and more responsive to signs that economic growth may be slowing.  We expect […]

Yield grab supports the USD, Japanification fear weakens EUR

Posted on April 5th, 2019

FX markets are meandering with no clear trends, and it seems investors have little market conviction.  This appears to be resulting in choppy price action influenced mainly by short term technicals rather than macroeconomic developments. We have noted that in recent years the FX market has appeared to be less pre-emptive, and often responds surprisingly […]

Latest AmpGFX Real Time Briefings

RBA’s Debelle strikes optimistic tone; remains lazer focused on the state of the labour market

Posted on April 10th, 2019

  We had warned to watch out for dovish noises from the RBA this week after it changed its monetary policy meeting statement earlier in the month to say they are monitoring developments, suggesting they may be willing to consider a rate cut in coming months if downside risks to growth materialize. Watch out for […]

May opens a path to unlock the Brexit Jam

Posted on April 3rd, 2019

  PM May calls for a unified government approach to unlock the Brexit jam.   Failing a unified plan, she has offered parliament a meaningful vote on a number of plans in a series of votes ahead of the EU summit on 10 April next week.   This appears to offer a way to find […]

RBA hints at an easing bias

Posted on April 2nd, 2019

The final ‘policy guidance’ paragraph added that the RBA is now “monitoring developments” suggesting that it is less sure that its current policy setting will remain appropriate. It said, “Taking account of the available information, the Board judged that it was appropriate to hold the stance of policy unchanged at this meeting. The Board will […]