Latest AmpGFX Reports

The global recovery narrative crumbles

Posted on May 24th, 2019

The US equity market was running with an optimistic assessment that there is a Trump and Fed put, that a trade deal and Chinese policy stimulus would generate a recovery in the global economy and the US economy was largely immune to a slowdown in activity abroad. However, the tariffs have been increased, trade talks […]

High stakes Huawei gamble a weight on US and global equities

Posted on May 21st, 2019

The Huawei Entity Listing appears to be a high stakes gamble by the US administration to counter the rise in Chinese economic power in an industry that is critical to the global economy.  It is evidence that the broader economic and trade dispute will be hard to resolve, and makes it harder for China and […]

Trump presses his advantage against China; CNY drags down Asian currencies

Posted on May 14th, 2019

CNY falls sharply illustrating that China bears most of the fallout from the trade war.  The US economy also suffers, mostly from the risk that China boycotts US brands, but Trump may have a significant advantage.  Bilateral US tariff policy may be an effective policy to counter China’s policy of subsidizing and regulatory support of […]

Latest AmpGFX Real Time Briefings

Global risks escalate

Posted on May 18th, 2019

  The trade dispute has escalated in the last two weeks and looks set to be a war of attrition.  This is not good for the Chinese economy, or the US economy.  It is not good for global growth and will detract from the performance of more trade-dependent economies. The trade dispute initially led to […]

A tortured RBA Statement – they make the case to ease policy, but held steady for no apparent reason

Posted on May 7th, 2019

  This is one of the more tortured RBA policy statements for some time.   They have basically made a case to cut rates, suggested that their forecasts imply that they need to, but then have held off, hoping they are wrong and unemployment falls faster than they currently expect. For what purpose are they holding […]

Low inflation may force the RBA’s hand in May

Posted on April 24th, 2019

  The downside miss on inflation in Australia probably forces the RBA’s hand to cut rates.  The RBA generally doesn’t fuss too much with appearances once it changes its mind, so a cut at its next policy meeting as soon as 7 May is likely, even though it would come only weeks before the Federal […]