Real Time Briefing

Bought EUR/AUD

Bought half unit EUR/AUD at 1.44125

Positions

long half unit EUR/AUD at 1.44125; s/l 1.4273

Comment

Eurozone again posted another increase in its preliminary April PMIs. Recovery continues to show resilience and gaining moment. US preliminary PMI was weaker. EUR upside potential seems significant at this time with Macron well positions to take the final round of the French election. Little change expected from ECB this week, but some risk it shifts guidance a bit to remove downside risk bias.

AUD is likely to run into resistance near .7600, barring a significant upside surprise for the CPI on Wednesday.

Global risk appetite should be contained by the risk of US failing to get a debt ceiling increase, healthcare bill debate, and Trump potentially announcing a tax package all this week.

But if Trump admin can get wins, higher US yields may hurt AUD more than EUR anyway.

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Greg Gibbs,
Founder, Analyst and PM
Amplifying Global FX Capital Pty Ltd