Real Time Briefing

Short EUR & CAD vs. USD (14-Feb)

EUR and CAD closed on stop on the same day after a surprising fall in the USD after the US CPI data.

Real-time AmpGFX – stopped on CAD, additional thoughts on gold (Wed 2/14/2018 10:21 AM MT)

I was stopped out on the long USD/CAD position, very near the low after the post CPI fall in the USD. It is trading higher again now, although at this time still below its level before the CPI. I am not inclined to chase it and re-enter the trade. The market action is confusing in the wake of this CPI that should have been clearly bullish for the USD.

Gold attracting a lot of attention, trading nearer long-term resistance, reflecting the weaker USD, higher inflation expectations, and perhaps a desire for a safe haven with volatility in global markets.

The performance of the USD in the sessions ahead will be interesting to see. If it can’t gain support from the rise in US rates and yields (2yr swap rates are up 7.5bp, 10-year bond yields up 6.5%), then it points to deeper underlying risks in US assets.

I wouldn’t say I will be looking for imminent armageddon, and it may just be a function of a more erratic and challenging FX market, less aligned to fundamental drivers and more driven by sentiment, positioning and other vagaries. But it would beg the question whether the USD is losing status related to political dysfunction and deteriorating fiscal position. In which case, Gold should do very well. And potentially also XBT.

Positions

Long half unit COINXBE at 353.0

Short 1/3 unit TYH8 at 120-30; s/l 121-20+

Short half unit EUR/USD at 1.2322; 1.2423

Real-time AmpGFX – Sold EUR and CAD vs USD (Wed 2/14/2018 7:46 AM MT)

Bought half unit USD/CAD at 1.2632

Sold half unit EUR/USD at 1.2322.

Comment to follow

Positions

Long half unit COINXBE at 345.00

Short 1/3 unit TYH8 at 120-30; s/l 121-20+

Long half unit USD/CAD at 1.2632

Short half unit EUR/USD at 1.2322

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Greg Gibbs,
Founder, Analyst and PM
Amplifying Global FX Capital Pty Ltd