Short 10-yr US T-Bond Futures (From 1-Mar to 13-Mar)
Real-Time AmpGFX – closed EUR and TYM8 (all) positions (Tue 3/13/2018 10:06 AM)
I bought one-third unit on TYM8 at 120-10
I bought half-unit EUR/USD at 1.2399
Comment
The CPI data show some deceleration in several core underlying measures, (trimmed mean, weighted median, Core Sticky).
The special election tonight could significantly weaken the USD if the Democrat candidate wins Pennsylvania 18th District Special Election may be seen as a sign that the Democrats have a chance of flipping the balance of power in the House and Senate in November, raising the chances of more political turmoil between Congress and the Administration, including the risk of impeachment.
The Democrat candidate, Lamb, has been on a rising trend in the polls, and has pulled just ahead in recent polls, despite the tariff announcements that should have boosted support for Trump in the steel making state.
Real-Time AmpGFX – sold US 10-year Treasury Bond Futures (Thu 3/1/2018 8:17 AM MT)
Sold one-third unit of TYM8 at 120-10
Stop losses on short EUR and AUD positions lowered
Comment
This is a core view, that upward pressure on US yields will continue this year – increasing supply, decreasing Fed purchases, increasing inflation pressure in the USA as fiscal stimulus boosts growth and labor market tightens, tariffs, and a USD that may remain weak weighed down by political uncertainty (bipartisan Congress, Nov mid-terms, Mueller investigation).
Positions
Short half unit EUR at 1.2321; s/l 1.2237; t/p 1.2128
Short one unit AUD/USD at 0.7796; s/l 7773; t/p 7658
Short one-third unit TYM8 at 120-10; s/l 120-23+