Long GBP/JPY trade (14 to 21 Sep)
Real Time AmpGFX – Sold GBP/JPY to square long position (Thu 9/21/2017 10:33 PM MDT)
USD/JPY succumbed to NK threats, USD/JPY stop was triggered, and this trade is closed in a small profit.
I sold one unit of GBP/JPY at 151.81 to close the long position
I expect some physical response from NK. And there is every likelihood Trump will continue to goad Kim.
In this event, we may see gappy price action in JPY
Positions
Short half unit AUD/USD at 0.7929; s/l 0.8017; t/p 0.7840
Real Time AmpGFX – sold half unit AUD/USD / s/l orders raised on GBP/JPY and USD/JPY (Thu 9/21/2017 1:21 PM MDT)
Positions
Long one unit GBP/JPY at 147.55; s/l 150.73; t/p 157.45 (s/l raised)
Long half unit USD/JPY at 111.52; s/l 111.73; t/p 114.25 (s/l raised)
Short half unit AUD/USD at 0.7929; s/l 0.8017; t/p 0.7840
Real Time AmpGFX – raising s/l on GBP/JPY and USD/JPY (Wed 9/20/2017 2:24 PM MDT)
Positions
Long one unit GBP/JPY at 147.55; s/l 149.73; t/p 157.45
Long half unit USD/JPY at 111.52; s/l 111.17; t/p 114.25
Comment
These trades are mildly bullish the USD. JPY remains less strong than other currencies and most linked to US yields. I can see a case for a stronger USD, but it is battling against a stronger view for other currencies, principally on a stronger global economic outlook. The rate hike agenda in the UK has added to broader USD weakness.
To get the USD moving we need more evidence that tax reform is taking hold.
Moving my stops up to lock in gains and limit risk.
AmpGFX – Fed sticks to the plan
Real Time AmpGFX – raising GBP/JPY s/l (Fri 9/15/2017 7:05 AM MDT)
Positions
Long one unit AUD/NZD at 1.1079; s/l 1.0973; t/p 1.1272
Long one unit GBP/JPY at 147.55; s/l 149.43; t/p 157.45
Real Time AmpGFX – bought GBP/JPY (Thu 9/14/2017 6:05 PM MDT)
Bought one unit of GBP/JPY at 147.55
Positions
Long one unit AUD/NZD at 1.1079; s/l 1.0973; t/p 1.1272
Long one unit GBP/JPY at 147.55; s/l 146.43; t/p 157.45
Comment
Earlier today we were stopped out of our long USD/JPY position, in some profit. And we were just now stopped out of EUR/USD short in a small loss.
NKorea has fired its missile over Japan. We have seen a correction in JPY. The reaction to this event, so far, is less severe than the previous such test. This appears to be NK’s reaction to the latest UN sanctions, to register it strong defiance.
This risk is a bigger war of words takes hold threatening further brinksmanship. However, the USA may decide to let sanctions and economic pressure play out. Perhaps the market will more quickly move onto other more fundamental factors.
GBP has risen sharply in response to the BoE statement and higher than expected CPI data on Tuesday. My read on the BoE statement is that they have sent a clear warning that they plan to hike in November (barring some unforeseen development).
The market is probably still short GBP and thus it may continue to strengthen.
The USD could also resume its rally in light of the firmer CPI data today and improved political atmosphere in the USA. Tax policy has taken a back seat again to DACA/border security, which is a bit disappointing. But Trump appears to be working towards results rather than impressing his Alt-right base. This should still be seen as a better environment for the USD. Announcements on tax policy may return to focus in coming weeks. As such, I have taken this position in the GBP/JPY cross.
The GBP/JPY chart suggests that it is trading very close to overhead-resistance (around 147.75/148.10). It traded above this resistance earlier today, a sign that it may be ready to break up), opening scope for a larger move. I think the odds favour a more decisive move up, either through the GBP/USD, or USD/JPY.