Long USD/JPY (18 to 21 Sep)

Real Time AmpGFX – Sold GBP/JPY to square long position (Thu 9/21/2017 10:33 PM MDT)

USD/JPY succumbed to NK threats, USD/JPY stop was triggered, and this trade is closed in a small profit.

I sold one unit of GBP/JPY at 151.81 to close the long position

I expect some physical response from NK.  And there is every likelihood Trump will continue to goad Kim.

In this event we may see gappy price action in JPY


Short half unit AUD/USD at 0.7929; s/l 0.8017; t/p 0.7840

Real Time AmpGFX – sold half unit AUD/USD / s/l orders raised on GBP/JPY and USD/JPY (Thu 9/21/2017 1:21 PM MDT)


Long one unit GBP/JPY at 147.55; s/l 150.73; t/p 157.45 (s/l raised)

Long half unit USD/JPY at 111.52; s/l 111.73; t/p 114.25 (s/l raised)

Short half unit AUD/USD at 0.7929; s/l 0.8017; t/p 0.7840

Real Time AmpGFX – raising s/l on GBP/JPY and USD/JPY  (Wed 9/20/2017 2:24 PM MDT)


Long one unit GBP/JPY at 147.55; s/l 149.73; t/p 157.45

Long half unit USD/JPY at 111.52; s/l 111.17; t/p 114.25


These trades are mildly bullish the USD.  JPY remains less strong than other currencies and most linked to US yields.  I can see a case for a stronger USD, but it is battling against a stronger view for other currencies, principally on a stronger global economic outlook.   The rate hike agenda in the UK has added to broader USD weakness.

To get the USD moving we need more evidence that tax reform is taking hold.

Moving my stops up to lock in gains and limit risk.

AmpGFX – Fed sticks to the plan

Real Time AmpGFX – bought USD/JPY (Mon 9/18/2017 10:31 AM MDT)

Bought half unit USD/JPY at 111.52


Long one unit GBP/JPY at 147.55; s/l 149.43; t/p 157.45

Long half unit USD/JPY at 111.52; s/l 110.73; t/p 114.25



US and global yields are rising at the moment.

This is consistent with improving global growth confidence, including in emerging markets, tending to lift global equity markets.

The Fed is set to announce its QT this week.  While well known and not anticipated to generate ripples, it does signal the first key shift in global QE reversing that should over time place upward pressure on bond yields.  Perhaps the market will start to think more about this.

The market has less than two hikes in the Fed curve out to end-2018.  This is much below the FOMC dot plot of 4 hikes.  The Fed may lower this to between three and four hikes, but this suggests limited scope to meet current relatively low rate hike pricing in the market.

The Fed may sound out the need to keep raising rates given financial conditions have not tightened, and the hurricane effects are likely not to change the overall trajectory of the economy.

Labour market indicators have actually tightened in August (ISM employment components, JOLTS, CB Hard to get less jobs plentiful survey)

Tax reform is on the agenda and US sounding out need for patience on NK.

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Greg Gibbs,
Founder, Analyst and PM
Amplifying Global FX Capital Pty Ltd