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EUR/NZD trade and comments and orders

Tue 6/27/2017 5:27 PM

Real Time AmpGFX – order update

Positions

Long half unit EUR/USD at 1.1208; s/l 1.1248

Long half unit EUR/NZD at 1.5474; s/l 1,5473

Long half unit EUR/NZD at 1.5549; s/l 1.5473

Comment

The long EUR position was taken after further signs of stalling US economic reports (durable goods, Chicago Fed National Activity Index).  I discussed in more detail the trends in the US economy in the AmpGFX report yesterday (Fed vs the data, Dudley writing calls on the S&P).  it also reflected a period consolidation in the EUR, stronger IFO, Italian bank bailout, and a sense that the EUR was still placed better on political risk factors.

The EUR has jumped following the Draghi speech today, but really these were not that hawkish, not more than Dudley’s.  But if US employment data does not hold up, the Fed may have to walk back its hawkish tone.

Month, quarter, half year end approaching, might this be a factor lifting EUR into end quarter?

A lot of focus has turned to a run of more hawkish Fed commentators, focused on financial conditions.  It appears to have had a significant impact on long term yields, and may be weighing on equities.  This could feedback negatively to NZD.

Milk futures prices have also fallen in recent sessions.

As discussed below EUR/NZD made a reversal chart pattern.

Tue 6/27/2017 11:07 AM

Real Time AmpGFX – added to EUR/NZD

Bought half unit of EUR/NZD at 1.5549

Rising long-term yields a negative for the NZD;  central bankers shifting focus to financial conditions and real yields, lessening the emphasis on inflation can favour yields higher and equities lower.

Positions

Long half unit EUR/USD at 1.1208; s/l 1.1158

Long half unit EUR/NZD at 1.5474

Long half unit EUR/NZD at 1.5549

Tue 6/27/2017 7:27 AM MDT

Real Time – bought EUR/NZD

Bought half unit of EUR/NZD at 1.5474

The chart pattern in the daily bars is setting up as an outside day reversal.

Further comments and orders to follow.

Positions

Long half unit EUR/USD at 1.1208; s/l 1.1158

Long half unit EUR/NZD at 1.5474



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Greg Gibbs,
Founder, Analyst and PM
Amplifying Global FX Capital Pty Ltd