Long AUD/USD (26-Nov)

Real-Time AmpGFX – sold AUD/USD on breaking news from WSJ (Mon 11/26/2018 2:18 PM MT)

Sold one unit of AUD at 0.7226

WSJ breaking news, Trump highly unlikely to accept China request to halt a planned increase in tariffs to 25%.

Part of my reason for buying AUD was my expectation that we may see Trump and Xi sound a willingness to work on a trade deal.  This headline throws doubt on this view.


Real-Time AmpGFX – Bought AUD/USD (Mon 11/26/2018 10:13 AM)

Bought one unit of AUD/USD at 0.7237



We see risk biased towards Fed reacting to recent financial market turmoil that has spread to US credit markets and lower oil prices as sounding less hawkish in speeches this week and minutes.

We also expect Trump and Xi to sound more cooperative on trade issues later this week, as both may feel they need to provide reassurance to investors in their equity markets.

The steep falls in commodity prices, including oil and iron ore are risks to the AUD, but commodity prices are bouncing from lows on Monday.  And in longer-term analysis, Australia’s terms of trade appears still high relative to the AUD.

There is also the threat looming of a US government shut-down as a funding bill needs to be passed in early-December and the US Congress and Administration are at risk of being sidetracked by adding conditions on protecting the Mueller investigation and funding the border wall.

The AUD has fallen back to a support line, and we are using that to monitor the trade and keep our stop loss as relatively tight.



Long one unit of AUD/USD at 0.7237; s/l 0.7193; t/p 0.7442 (Capital at Risk 0.44%)


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Greg Gibbs,
Founder, Analyst and PM
Amplifying Global FX Capital Pty Ltd