Long CAD/JPY (From 1-Mar to 5-Mar)
Real-Time AmpGFX – bought CAD/JPY to close short (Mon 3/5/2018 10:15 AM MT)
Bought ¼ unit CAD/JPY to close short position
Comment
I see upside risk for USD/JPY that should find support towards 105, and may already be demonstrating that with a solid bounce in the last two sessions (including today), despite Kuroda putting a date of potential beginning exit a year from now.
JPY has weakened against the USD today, whereas other currencies have strengthened; (paying more attention to rising US yields and firmer equities than it has done lately).
CAD has weakened further on Trump saying without a NAFTA renegotiated deal, steel tariffs will stand against Canada. But this also offers a chance that steel tariffs do not stand, and NAFTA risk was evident in the first place. USD/CAD should also find resistance near 1.30. CAD/JPY is also near supports.
I corrected the entry level on AUD below.
Positions
Short one unit AUD/USD at 0.7744; s/l 0.7787; t/p 0.7658
Short one-third unit TYM8 at 120-10; s/l 120-23+
Long ¼ unit Gold/AUD at 1698.65; s/l 1692.47 (raised from 1679.47)
Short half unit EUR at 1.2334; s/l 1.2417; t/p 1.2028
Real-Time AmpGFX – trimming risk-off trades (Fri 3/2/2018 2:35 PM MT)
I bought ¼ unit of CAD/JPY at 82.02
I sold ¼ unit of Gold/AUD at 1703.07
Comment
This trims the half unit positions to ¼ positions in both these (risk-off) trades taken on Thursday after the tariff story.
US equity markets have improved on Friday. The market may be calming down its initial response to the story. The tariffs threaten growth in some sectors, and there is a risk of retaliation. But the details of the tariffs are still not known, and the market may be torn between anticipating a trade war and wondering if Trump may walk back the scope of the tariffs over the weekend.
Currencies are hard to call at the moment, CAD/JPY and USD/JPY are near key support zones, so it may not be a good time to be holding a short CAD/JPY position.
The USD was breaking topside resistance just ahead of the tariff story, so it is hard to be sure that it will revert to a bearish trend. The US employment data next week may reinvigorate the USD again.
On the other hand, Trump has tweeted that a trade war is easy to win, the US does have a big trade deficit, so he may well be right. He does appear to be highly focused on improving US trade advantage. So I am not expecting him to walk back on tariffs, and trade protectionism is likely to remain a theme.
As such, I have kept a bit of exposure in these risk-off trades for the time being.
I have also tightened the stop losses on the remainder of these trades.
Positions
Short one unit AUD/USD at 0.7796; s/l 7773; t/p 7658
Short one-third unit TYM8 at 120-10; s/l 120-23+
Long ¼ unit Gold/AUD at 1698.65; s/l 1692.47 (raised from 1679.47)
Short ¼ unit CAD/JPY at 82.81; s/l 82.67 (lowered from 83.77)
Real-Time AmpGFX – Sold CAD/JPY (Thu 3/1/2018 2:52 PM MT)
Canada would seem to be one of the more directly affected countries with respect to US steel and aluminum tariffs. Plus it is facing broader pressure due to NAFTA negotiations.
Canadian economic reports have been missing to the downside recently.
JPY has been persistently strong this year, acting as a safe haven, diverging from US yield spread.
Positions
Short one unit AUD/USD at 0.7796; s/l 7773; t/p 7658
Short one-third unit TYM8 at 120-10; s/l 120-23+
Long half unit Gold/AUD at 1698.65; s/l 1679.47
Short half unit CAD/JPY at 82.81; s/l 83.77