Long EUR/CAD comment and orders


Long half unit EUR/CAD at 1.50806; s/l 1.4893; t/p 1.5493



Canadian bank stocks remain under pressure in the wake of the HCG event.  BoC will presumably be very cautious on policy going forward, fearing the broader impact on the housing market and credit conditions.

The oil price has broken through March lows, and energy stocks are down significantly today.

EUR has broken up through the top of its range since the French election two weeks ago, suggesting uptrend developing.

Weaker commodity prices could spill over into some risk aversion that would tend to support EUR and weaken CAD.

US trade policy (renegotiating NAFTA) Is an additional factor that weighs on Canadian economic sentiment.

The difficulty with this trade is the levels, USD/CAD has been weakening for several weeks since the HCG news and oil price fall began.

Market positions in already short CAD and much less short EUR than it has been.

Risk events include the 2nd round French election on Sunday and  Canadian employment report on Friday. Recent Canadian data has been strong, but the market is likely to fade stronger Canadian data at this time.

(See pdf for charts)


Disclosure and Certification

  • The author of this report often has positions in the currencies and securities referenced in the report at the time of publication, or plans to trade in these currencies and securities.
  • The views expressed in this report accurately reflect the author’s personal opinion about the referenced currencies and securities referenced and other subject matter.
  • The report does not contain and is not based on any non-public, material information.
  • The information in this report has been obtained from sources we believe to be reputable and accurate, but we have not independently checked or verified that information.
  • This report is protected by copyright laws. Please do not republish, post or distribute in any way its contents without prior permission from our company.
  • Our Company is incorporated and licensed in Australia to provide only general financial advice. Please see our financial services guide and terms and conditions for use of this report for more information.

Greg Gibbs,
Founder, Analyst and PM
Amplifying Global FX Capital Pty Ltd