Long Gold/USD (From 14-Feb to 16-Feb)

Gold position closed on stop (in profit)


Real-time AmpGFX – placing close stop loss orders in gold and US bonds (Fri 2/16/2018 6:50 AM MT)

I have moved up stop loss orders close to current levels in gold long and US Treasury bond short positions

I want to protect capital in an uncertain environment.

I don’t fully respect this fall in the USD this week as sustainable, moving well against its yield advantage, and I see potential for a significant retracement of golds gains.  I think the market is likely to be still seeking a safe-haven, so my bias is still to be long.  But I don’t want to risk a lot of capital at these levels.

Similarly, I see risk of a significant retracement in US 10 year yields, so want to lock in some gains here.

Positions

Long half unit COINXBE at 353.0

Short 1/3 unit TYH8 at 120-30; s/l 120-20+ (lowered from 121-20+)

Long half unit Gold at 1350.74; s/l 1351.73 (raised from 1334.23) ; t/p 1488.0


Real-time AmpGFX – bought gold (Wed 2/14/2018 2:39 PM MT)

I bought a half unit of Gold/USD at 1350.71.

The USD has been remarkably weak after what should have been stronger data (higher than expected CPI) causing a sizeable rise in US yields.

A weaker USD combined with stronger growth and inflation indicators should tend to boost inflation expectations.  USA Breakevens are rising.  The market should be on the hunt for an inflation hedge, including gold.

Strong equities may not support gold, but rising yields provide an unstable backdrop for asset prices.  Higher volatility in equity markets may support gold.

The weaker USD is taking on an appearance of declining confidence in US government assets (dollar and government bonds) on fiscal expansion and political divisions, generating demand for alternative safe havens.

Positions

Long half unit COINXBE at 353.0

Short 1/3 unit TYH8 at 120-30; s/l 121-20+

Long half unit Gold at 1350.74; s/l 1334.23; t/p 1488.0

 



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Greg Gibbs,
Founder, Analyst and PM
Amplifying Global FX Capital Pty Ltd