Real Time Briefing

Long NZD/USD trade 7-8 September

Real Time AmpGFX – Sold NZD/USD to close long

(Fri 9/8/2017 6:38 AM MDT)

Sold one unit NZD/USD at 0.7296

I don’t want to hold through the weekend when open could be very messy and USD is potentially volatile.

Real Time AmpGFX – Moving NZD/USD stop up; Trump/Schumer talks on debt ceiling

(Thursday, September 07, 2017 9:23 PM MDT)

The Washington Post is reporting that Trump and Senate Minority Leader Schumer (Democrat) are working on permanently removing the debt ceiling.

While this may add to the sense of chaos in Washington, and by some be seen as a reason to sell the USD, It could be argued to be a very good thing. No Debt ceiling removes the constant threat of shutdown and distraction of Congress from long term reform. It may also signal that Trump is now working hard to gain support across the aisle opening up new scope for compromise on other contentious policies.

As such, I am putting a tight rein on my short USD position

Position

Long one unit NZD/USD at 0.7263; s/l 0.7252; t/p 0.7373

Real Time AmpGFX – NZD/USD comment and orders

(Thursday, September 07, 2017 7:05 PM)

US Treasury yields have fallen again today, and are at lows. I think technical they look like they are at risk of further falls. This is contributing to a weaker USD trend.

It may be the approach of Irma to Florida contributing to the weakness, the prospect of more NK tests, the less hawkish comments from Fed members, including Dudley. It may be that the EM market strength and EUR gains are dragging the USD down more generally.

The USD has been quite weak; it’s not exactly clear why, but I can’t quite think what turns the tide, so, for the time being, I am trying to go with it.

The NZ has political risk, but I think that may be more widely appreciated now. NZD has not risen as much as other currencies against the USD. We found when the USD was falling earlier in the week, NZD moved up pretty fast. So I chose to buy it.

NZ manufacturing volume data were reasonable.

Positions

Long one unit NZD/USD at 0.7263; s/l 0.7187; t/p 0.7373

Real Time AmpGFX – bought NZD/USD

(Thursday, September 07, 2017 6:49 PM MDT)

I bought 1 unit NZD/USD at 0.7263

The USD looks weak across the board, so deciding to get involved.

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Greg Gibbs,
Founder, Analyst and PM
Amplifying Global FX Capital Pty Ltd