View Latest

View Archive

BoE Carney raises odds of a hike; latest global yield developments

Posted on June 28th, 2017

Carney’s speech delivered during a panel discussion at the ECB central bank conference focused on business investment developments in the UK since the 2007/09 Global Financial Crisis. Carney was more optimistic about the current business investment outlook, making similar observations to BoE Chief Economist and MPC member Haldane last week. A theme several central bankers […]

USD bounce back, hawkish Fed vs weak US data, order update, EUR long trade

Posted on June 27th, 2017

The EUR has fallen from this morning’s run higher. The USD fell early in the US day on weak US data (Durable goods orders, Chicago Fed National Activity Index and Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index). Dudley and Williams Fed’s Dudley gave a speech at the BIS annual general meeting in Switzerland, timed at about an hour […]

A review of the Australian data, global equity and bond markets

Posted on June 23rd, 2017

Australian economy mixed It’s a mixed outlook, but probably generally better than what a number of analysts suggest and the RBA is likely to sound reasonably upbeat. The housing market is an obvious risk, and it appears that Australian housing and household confidence would be quite sensitive to higher rates.  But as it stands there […]

RBNZ gives a nod to higher export prices and budget, but downgrades the construction outlook

Posted on June 21st, 2017

The NZD has bounced moderately on the RBNZ statement, perhaps because it was not as emphatic in its comments on the exchange rate as it was earlier in the year, and acknowledged that the terms of trade were stronger and supporting growth.  It also gave a nod to the budget situation, which is relatively strong […]

BoE’s Haldane moves the needle on UK rates.

Posted on June 21st, 2017

BoE’s Haldane moves the needle on UK rates. The chances of a UK rate hike have been given a boost by one of the key members of the four current internal bank members of the eight member MPC, Chief Economist Andrew Haldane, calling for a hike “relatively soon”.  Haldane had been considered one of the […]

Sold NZD/JPY trade and comment 20 June 2107

Posted on June 20th, 2017

Tue 6/20/2017 12:09 PM MDT Real Time AmpGFX – sold NZD/JPY; lower GBP/USD s/l Sold half unit NZD/JPY at 80.69 Position Short half unit NZD/JPY at 80.69; s/l 81.58 Short half unit NZD/USD at 0.7243; s/l  0.7313 Short half unit GBP/USD at 1.2655; s/l 1.2713 Comment US 10 year yields remain low, dragged down by […]

Sold GBP USD dovish BoE Carney Mansion house speech

Posted on June 20th, 2017

Tue 6/20/2017 6:57 AM MDT Real Time AmpGFX – sold GBP/USD Sold half unit GBP/USD at 1.2655 Position Short half unit NZD/USD at 0.7243; s/l  0.7313 Short half unit GBP/USD at 1.2655; s/l 1.2768 Comment The changes of a rate hike in the UK appear slim. With inflation rising, real rates are now lower. A […]

Short NZD vs USD and JPY trades and comments 14-19 June 2017

Posted on June 19th, 2017

Mon 6/19/2017 7:40 AM MDT Real Time AmpGFX – Sold NZD/USD (re-established) I have sold half unit NZD/USD at 0.7243 The USD has been choppy in the last week with a range of developments.  The USD appeared vulnerable to a deep slump after the weak CPI report, but has received a reprieve after a more […]

Some initial thoughts on FOMC

Posted on June 14th, 2017

The FOMC has not baulked at the recent low inflation outcomes and overall is sticking with its key projections and outlook for the next two years.  In her press conference, Yellen pointed to special factors including lower IT goods and pharmaceuticals driving recent low inflation outcomes, suggesting they may not persist, and cautioning that monthly […]

Short USD/JPY and comments 14June 2017

Posted on June 14th, 2017

Wed 6/14/2017 12:53 PM Real Time AmpGFX – closed short USD/JPY Bought USD/JPY 109.44, to close short. FOMC statements supportive for the USD. Wed 6/14/2017 8:16 AM  Real Time AmpGFX – USD/JPY sold and orders Position Short half unit USD/JPY at 109.29; s/l 109.88; t/p 105.58 Wednesday, June 14, 2017 7:40 AM MDT Real Time […]