Short AUD/USD (From 27-Feb to 6-Mar)
Stopped out on 6-Mar .
Real-Time AmpGFX – Sold AUD/USD to re-establish short (Mon 3/5/2018 7:00 PM MT)
Sold one unit of AUD/USD at 0.7786
We were stopped out of the AUD/USD position around current levels, but I have re-established the short position
I am still of the opinion that the tariff story should be more negative for AUD and in general positive for the USD.
Retail sales in Australia were weaker than expected.
The RBA statement should be little changed
Positions
Short one unit AUD/USD at 0.7786; s/l 7828; t/p 0.7658
Short one-third unit TYM8 at 120-10; s/l 120-23+
Long ¼ unit Gold/AUD at 1698.65; s/l 1692.47 (raised from 1679.47)
Short ¼ unit CAD/JPY at 82.81; s/l 82.67 (lowered from 83.77)
Real-Time AmpFX – Sold AUD/USD (Mon 3/5/2018 9:40 AM MT)
Sold one unit AUD/USD at 0.7744
Comment
I was stopped out of a short AUD/USD position on Monday morning in Asia (in profit). I have sold to re-establish this position.
China growth outlook is facing more risk from policy leaning towards controlling financial risks in China, and more aggressive USA trade policy.
USA Steel tariffs that are largely directed at China and generate greater uncertainty in the global steel sector. This may generate downside risk for iron ore and coal prices, particularly in Australia’s largest markets in Asia. Iron ore prices fell significantly on Monday.
US economic growth appears to have picked up momentum, with upside risks to the USA employment data this week.
The RBA is likely to remain neutral and yield spreads – real, nominal short or long – still should be posing a downside risk for the AUD.
Fears surrounding a trade war generate downside risks for EM and commodity currencies.
Positions
Short one unit AUD/USD at 0.7796; s/l 7787; t/p 7658
Short one-third unit TYM8 at 120-10; s/l 120-23+
Long ¼ unit Gold/AUD at 1698.65; s/l 1692.47 (raised from 1679.47)
Short ¼ unit CAD/JPY at 82.81; s/l 82.67 (lowered from 83.77)
Stop lowered to 0.7773 on 1 March
Real-Time AmpGFX – sold AUD (Tue 2/27/2018 1:09 PM MT)
Sold one unit AUD/USD at 0.7796.
Comment
US rates have moved up after the Powell testimony and global equity markets are weaker. EM exchange-traded funds in the US are off the most, down 2.4%, and EM currencies are under pressure, more than reversing their gains on Monday.
Rates are well higher across the curve for USD over AUD, and without strength in EM markets, we might see broader gains in the USD.
I was short the NZD yesterday and sadly closed that position, fearing a rebound in global equity markets and swing back to a weaker USD.
After the Powell testimony, perhaps the market will start to pay more attention to evidence of accelerating US economic reports and risks towards higher US rates.
The USD remains reluctant to rise more generally, and I am not confident that it can turn more persistently higher, but I can see at least some short-term gains in the USD.
I see risk of a bounce in NZ business confidence today, and thus sold AUD. Credit growth in Australia for housing has been slowing, so this data may be more negative for the AUD.
Positions
Short half unit EUR at 1.2321; s/l 1.2377; t/p 1.2128
Long half unit COINXBE at 412; (I will be watching support at 9000ish on XBT to guide s/l).
Short one unit AUD/USD at 0.7796; s/l 7863; t/p 7658