Short AUD/USD (From 29-May to 4-Jun)
Trade was stopped out on 4-June
Real-time AmpGFX – sold AUD/USD (Thu 5/31/2018 7:59 AM MT)
Sold half unit AUD/USD at 0.7580
Comment
The US is pushing ahead with steel and aluminium tariffs against the EU and other trading partners after the temporary exemption finishes. The US continues to push tougher trade policies on several fronts, and this still poses a significant risk of undermining global growth confidence, including specifically in the steel sector important for Australia.
Political risk will remain elevated in the Eurozone. Spanish no-confidence vote and populist government coming in Italy.
Australian economic data were so-so and housing market fears continue to build.
US employment data on Friday may show further labour market tightening, and there is the risk of wage rises surprising. The Beige Book showed some increase in wage and price pressures
This trade essentially re-established a short position that had been stopped out earlier in the day.
Positions
Short AUD/USD at 0.7580; s/l 0.7628
The trade (below) was stopped out on 31-May
Real-Time AmpGFX – sold AUD/USD (Tue 5/29/2018 9:01 AM MT)
Sold half unit of AUD/USD at 0.7525
Comment
Since the weekend’s decision by the new Italian leaders to scuttle the government over an economic minister it is hard to see much if any way to near term improvement in the sense of crisis in Italy. The new leaders are set to force new elections, and in a way are forcing themselves into a corner not just to test EU rules, but to openly challenge them.
Trump administration has said it is moving forward with tariffs on China. This threated to awaken risk aversion in Asia at a time of broader market vulnerability.
Position
Short half unit AUD/USD at 0.7525, s/l 0.7588