Real Time Briefing

Short AUD/USD (from 9-Nov to 12-Nov)

Real-Time AmpGFX – sold AUD and NZD, adding to shorts

I have sold half units of both AUD and NZD at 0.7560 and 0.6838 respectively, adding to exisiting shorts.

A note on my bitcoin position, I mis-spoke earlier when I said my position was 1/10^th of my standard FX position size. It is, in fact, 1/20^th. I noted that given the volatility in bitcoin that I would call this a 1 unit trade. I have amended that to a half unit trade in my positions below.

Comment

The progress of the tax bill through the US Senate appears to be on track with Senator McCain saying he will support the bill.

US 10 year yields have lifted 4bp and 2yr swap rates are up 3bp to a new high.

The AUD/USD yield spread is -7bp on 2yr swaps and 8.5bp on 10-year bonds, both new long-term lows.

Positions

Short half unit NZD/USD at 0.6901; s/l 0.7018; t/p 0/6685

Short half unit NZD/USD at 0.6838; s/l 0.7018; t/p 0/6685

Short half unit AUD/USD at 0.7585; s/l 7663; t/p 0.7488

Short half unit AUD/USD at 0.7560; s/l 7663; t/p 0.7488

Long a half unit of an XBT derivative at $10,600

Real-Time AmpGFX – Trade update (Wed 11/15/2017 11:13 AM)

Our profit target was reached on short AUD/USD after the wages data on Tuesday 12-Nov.

Comment

I am not unhappy to be out of the AUD short ahead of the employment data today. Employment data globally have tended to beat expectations. The Australian vacancy data continues to grow at a steady and solid rate and NAB business survey employment component has been stable recently at a solid level.

However, we may look to sell AUD again. Growth and market indicators from China suggest some tightening in financial conditions and softening demand.

Real-Time AmpGFX – Sold AUD/USD (Thu 11/9/2017 8:37 AM MT)

Sold half unit AUD/USD at 0.7661

Comment

I expect the RBA to sound a bit more dovish in their SoMP on Friday, reflecting the lower starting point for inflation and pushing out the forecast somewhat for underlying to rise back into the target zone.

I am not sure I want to hold this through the next employment report next week.

Positions

Short half unit EUR/USD at 1.1612; s/l 1.1713; t/p 1.1518

Short half unit AUD/USD at 0.7661; s/l 0.7763; t/p 0.7585

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Greg Gibbs,
Founder, Analyst and PM
Amplifying Global FX Capital Pty Ltd