Short EUR/JPY (From 6-Apr to 10-Apr)
stopped out on 10-Apr
Real-Time AmpGFX – sold EUR/JPY (Fri 4/6/2018 9:43 AM MT)
sold half unit EUR/JPY at 131.28
Comment
JPY has weakened recently towards the high side of its USD/JPY range. It is hard to say it is much correlated to any of its sometimes drivers like US yields and global equities. But from the higher end of the USD/JPY range, it may tend to react more to risk aversion indicators such as weaker equities and lower US yields.
Today the US employment data were weaker than expected and the Trump trade rhetoric has kicked up.
EUR should continue to be challenged by evidence that the region’s economy has lost momentum.
Today, German industrial production was weaker than expected. Yesterday Eurozone retail sales were weaker, and today the retailing PMI was also down to a low in 12 months.
The Eurozone Citibank economic surprise index has fallen sharply deep into negative territory, faster than peers. The global index has also moved below zero which might tend to weigh on global growth expectations and keep yields and equities weaker, tending to support safe havens, like JPY.
Trade war fears are likely to ebb and flow, but it appears that Trump is going harder on this issue in part because he sees his approval rating rising, and this suggests we are likely to see him keep it up.
Citibank economic surprise indices (chart)
The global Citibank economic surprise index has moved below zero (chart)
EUR/JPY near resistance (chart)
Real Clear Politics index of Trump polls (chart)
Positions
Short half unit EUR/JPY at 131.28; 132.27; t/p 128.58
Long half unit AUD/NZD at 1.0568; s/l 1.0563; t/p 1.0778