Short EUR/USD (From 16-Mar to 19-Mar)
Real-Time AmpGFX – bought EUR to close short (Sun 3/18/2018 12:28 PM MT)
Bought half unit EUR/USD at 1.2298 to close short position.
As discussed below, political risk may send USD lower to start the week. As such I have closed the short EUR/USD position established on Friday.
The weekend polls in Japan confirm some fallout on Abe’s popularity from the scandal over a school land deal. In contrast to the USA, the political scandal in Japan is tending to strengthen the JPY on the view that Abe’s demise may undermine political support for ongoing BOJ quantitative policy easing at all costs.
Positions
Short one unit EUR/JPY at 131.39; s/l 131.33; t/p 126.28
Real-Time AmpGFX – sold EUR/USD (Fri 3/16/2018 8:22 AM MT)
Sold one unit EUR/USD at 1.2283
Comment
US economic data showing strength and suggests that the Fed will lean towards four hikes in their forecasts next week.
Eurozone inflation expectations have been in decline over the last month or so. Draghi has spoken against the EUR strength and its impact on inflation and the policy outlook. Other Eurozone survey data has cooled recently
The USD more broadly is showing strength, including vs. commodity currencies. Less so against EM currencies, but this may suggest a shift in the tone for the USD. The latest news around staff turnover at the White House has not been a factor driving broad USD weakness.
EUR/USD Yield spreads, short, long and real all at new lows.
With some lower highs in recent trading, EUR chart appears to have lost upward momentum. A break of recent lows may trigger a more bearish chart pattern.
Positions
Short one unit EUR/JPY at 131.39; s/l 131.33; t/p 126.28
Short one unit EUR/USD at 1.2283; s/l 1.2347; 1.2028