Short EUR/USD (From 22-Feb to 1-Mar)

Closed on stop on 1 Mar (after US tariff story drove USD decline)

Stop loss lowered to 1.2237 on 1 Mar

Real-Time AmpGFX – lowered EUR stop loss (Wed 2/28/2018 1:17 AM MT)

With Eurozone CPI data due, I have lowered s/l closer to market to prepare to lock in gains if there is a rebound on a stronger than expected outcome.


Short half unit EUR at 1.2321; s/l 1.2267; t/p 1.2128

Long half unit COINXBE at 412; (I will be watching support at 9000ish on XBT to guide s/l).

Short one unit AUD/USD at 0.7796; s/l 7863; t/p 7658

Sold half unit of EUR/USD


A tentative position.  EUR like many currencies has become more stretched from both short and long-term yield spreads.

Since around 5-Feb, the real long-term yield spread has also fallen.

Equity markets remain tricky, and, to the extent that the EUR has gained in the last year due to equity-related capital flows, the greater uncertainty may dampen the EUR.  The strength of the EUR may itself be dampening the outlook for EUR equities.

Recent economic reports show some peaking in the eurozone against an acceleration in the USA.


The Italian election is looming on 4 March.  This may cause some return of political risk in the Eurozone.

Futures positioning in the EUR remains elevated

Looking for a move to around 1.21

Stopping above the recent FOMC highs – quite close


Short half unit TYH8 at 120-11; s/l 120-26+

Short one unit NZD at .7309; s/l 0.7367; t/p 0.7208

Short half unit EUR at 1.2321; s/l 1.2377; t/p 1.2128

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Greg Gibbs,
Founder, Analyst and PM
Amplifying Global FX Capital Pty Ltd