Short NZD/USD (from 13-Nov to 1-Dec)
Real-Time AmpGFX — closed NZD and AUD shorts (Fri 12/1/2017 9:23 AM MT)
Bought AUD and NZD at 0.7635 and 0.6911 respectively.
Comment
I have decided to close these trades on news reports that Flynn is prepared to testify against Trump, saying he was ordered to make contact with Russians.
The tax bill appears to be on track to pass the Senate today; this may provide support for the USD. However, the USD has appeared to bear the brunt of political uncertainty in the US this year, so I feel best to step aside for the time being.
Some might argue that this does not matter, even if Trump steps down or is impeached, this could be perceived as a positive end result.
However, if Trump attempts to fight back in the court of public opinion, this is likely to drag out beyond the mid-terms and dominate public attention. This could turn out to be quite negative for the USD.
At this point, it appears quite difficult to be long USD, even though economic trends and tax cuts may turn out very positive.
Positions
Long a half unit of an XBT derivative at $10,600
Real-Time AmpGFX – sold AUD and NZD, adding to shorts
I have sold half units of both AUD and NZD at 0.7560 and 0.6838 respectively, adding to existing shorts.
A note on my bitcoin position, I mis-spoke earlier when I said my position was 1/10th of my standard FX position size. It is, in fact, 1/20th. I noted that given the volatility in bitcoin that I would call this a 1 unit trade. I have amended that to a half unit trade in my positions below.
Comment
The progress of the tax bill through the US Senate appears to be on track with Senator McCain saying he will support the bill.
US 10 year yields have lifted 4bp and 2yr swap rates are up 3bp to a new high.
The AUD/USD yield spread is -7bp on 2yr swaps and 8.5bp on 10-year bonds, both new long-term lows.
Positions
Short half unit NZD/USD at 0.6901; s/l 0.7018; t/p 0/6685
Short half unit NZD/USD at 0.6838; s/l 0.7018; t/p 0/6685
Short half unit AUD/USD at 0.7585; s/l 7663; t/p 0.7488
Short half unit AUD/USD at 0.7560; s/l 7663; t/p 0.7488
Long a half unit of an XBT derivative at $10,600
Real-Time AmpGFX – Sold NZD/USD (Mon 11/13/2017 9:04 AM MT)
Sold half unit NZD/USD
Comment
The RBNZ MPS out of the way, which we saw as a risk to the upside to NZD on bringing forward inflation and rates increase forecasts, and less negative commentary on currency. Focus can now shift back to risks in the housing market and economy.
US rates are creeping up at the front end and the back end has stabilized.
US CPI data may be important for direction this week. Potential for it to affect sentiment significantly either way.
Positions
Short half unit EUR/USD at 1.1612; s/l 1.1713; t/p 1.1518
Short half unit AUD/USD at 0.7661; s/l 0.7763; t/p 0.7585
Short half unit NZD/USD at 0.6901; s/l 0.7018; t/p 0/6685