Short NZD/USD (From 21-Feb to 26-Feb)

Real-Time AmpGFX – bought NZD to close short (Mon 2/26/2018 11:14 AM MT)

Bought one unit NZD at 0.7308

Comment

Global equity markets are rallying strongly on Monday.  A number of emerging market currencies are also stronger (KRW, TWD, CNY).  This may spill over to a weaker USD more generally.  NZD has been traded as somewhat of a risk-sensitive currency in recent months.

I see a risk towards stronger NZ business survey data this week, as the NZ warms to its new government.  Keeping risk light in choppy FX markets.

Positions

Short half unit EUR at 1.2321; s/l 1.2377; t/p 1.2128

Long half unit COINXBE at 412; (I will be watching support at 9000ish on XBT to guide s/l).

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Real-time AmpGFX – Sold NZD/USD (Wed 2/21/2018 3:46 PM MT)

Sold one unit of NZD/USD 0.7309

Comment

Higher US rates and yields should be supporting the USD.  They did not after the CPI last week, curiously.  But perhaps this is now occurring.  NZD/USD, as with a number of pairs, are below the pre-CPI release levels and yields are higher, boosted by the FOMC minutes.

Higher global yields may spill over to weaker equities and higher funding costs for NZ banks, undermining EM currencies and also the NZD.

I chose NZD since AUD/NZD is now lower and should be attracting demand from value traders and investors. Although NZD has proven much more stable than the AUD in recent periods of risk aversion.

Positions

Long half unit COINXBE at 353.0

Short half unit TYH8 at 120-11; s/l 120-26+

Short one unit NZD at .7309; s/l 0.7367; t/p 0.7208