Short NZD/CAD (from 5-July to 13-Aug)
Real-Time AmpGFX – Bought NZD/CAD to close short position – (Mon 8/13/2018 4:13 AM MT) Bought one unit of NZD/CAD at 0.8657 to close our short position. Comment Trump made comments on Friday evening threatening to impose car tariffs on Canada if it can’t get its way in upcoming trade negotiations. My initial thoughts were […]
Short AUD/USD (From 6 Aug to 10 Aug)
Real-Time AmpGFX – Bought AUD/USD to close short position, lowered NZD/CAD s/l (Fri 8/10/2018 7:22 AM MT) Bought AUD/USD at 0.7307 to close short position (positioned opened at 0.7385 on 6-Aug). Lowered stop loss in NZD/CAD Comment The AUD has dropped on global risk aversion related to Turkey. It might also receive some additional downside […]
RBA policy statement steers a steady course (6 Aug)
The RBA policy statement retained the key elements keeping rates stable largely as expected. It downgraded its view on China from “continues to grow solidly” to “has slowed a little”, and noted that China was “easing policy” and retained its assessment that China was “continuing to pay close attention to the risks in the financial […]
Long EUR/AUD (5-July to 18-July)
Position closed on stop Long half unit of EUR/AUD at 1.5824; s/l 1.5673; t/p 1.7234 ( stop executed at 1.56688, loss was 1.175% of capital) Real-Time AmpGFX – strong Australian employment report (Wed 7/18/2018 8:06 PM) The Australian employment report delivered jobs growth of +50.9K in June, well above 16.5K expected, and most of the […]
Strong Australian employment report (18 July)
The Australian employment report delivered jobs growth of +50.9K in June, well above 16.5K expected, and most of the gains were full-time; up 41.2K. The data will probably not change the outlook for rates much given it comes after slower jobs growth Feb-May, and the unemployment rate was reported unchanged at 5.4%, in a stable […]
Long GBP/JPY (From 13-July to 17-July)
Real-Time AmpGFX – sold GBP/JPY to close long on political uncertainty (Tue 7/17/2018 3:11 AM MT) Sold GBP/JPY at 148.94 Comment The political uncertainty in the UK appears to be increasing with May’s plan for a trade deal with the EU coming under increasing criticism from all sides, making it hard to see the UK […]
Comment on NZ inflation (16 July)
Contrary to our expectation, the core NZ inflation data has lifted, generating a picture of accelerating inflation after being long stagnant below the RBNZ 2% target. The NZD has shot up after the RBNZ released its analytical series, the Sectoral Factor Model. This is their preferred underlying measure, and it had been little moved at […]
Short USD/CAD (11-July)
Real-Time AmpGFX – Bought to close USD/CAD short (Wed 7/11/2018 10:44 AM) Bought half unit USD/CAD at 1.3127 to close short position. Comment As mentioned, I have added to the NZD/CAD short, and was looking to get out of the USD/CAD short, so have done that. Given the volatility in USD/CAD after the policy statement, […]
Long GBP/NZD (From 9 July to 11-July)
Real-Time AmpGFX – Sold GBP/NZD to close long position, strategy update (Wed 7/11/2018 2:53 PM MT) Sold half unit GBP/NZD at 1.9539 to close long position. Comment The risk around the GBP remains high, associated with the heightened focus on the debate inside the Tory party and how a new plan will be received by […]
Update on UK political developments (9 July)
I did not expect Davis or Johnson to resign. However, it still appears to me that May had a win on Friday when her cabinet signed up to the plan. The plan appears to be the only workable compromise. Without a compromise, it is either a hard Brexit, or a no Brexit. The paths to […]