Long GBP/JPY (From 13-July to 17-July)

Real-Time AmpGFX – sold GBP/JPY to close long on political uncertainty (Tue 7/17/2018 3:11 AM MT)

Sold GBP/JPY at 148.94


The political uncertainty in the UK appears to be increasing with May’s plan for a trade deal with the EU coming under increasing criticism from all sides, making it hard to see the UK parliament passing any deal that she can make with the EU.

The lack of any real comprehension from anyone on how this process may playout appears to have GBP in a choppy range but lacking direction.  It is hard to see this changing any time soon.

In the meantime, there is risk of greater downside from a miss on the CPI data or anything else that gives the BoE and excuse not to hike on 2-August.

As such we have decided to close the long GBP/JPY position, reflecting our lack of conviction


Long half unit of EUR/AUD at 1.5824; s/l 1.5673; t/p 1.7234

Short half unit NZD/CAD at 0.8914; s/l 0.9013; t/p 0.8513

Short half unit NZD/CAD at 0.8914; s/l 0.9013; t/p 0.8513


Real-Time AmpGFX – bought GBP/JPY (Fri 7/13/2018 8:47 AM MT)

The GBP may benefit as the market assesses that the trend is towards a soft Brexit and the tail risk is much larger for a no Brexit than a hard Brexit.

Next week we get UK CPI and employment data.  Recent economic reports have been better than expected in the UK and this may flow through to the employment data next week.  Hard to say what happens with CPI, but it may not be as important for the rates outlook in August.

We have decided to sell the JPY.  We are not convinced that the recent retreat in the EUR will last.  The USD could also remain strong and its economic reports continue to show strength.  Asian markets have retreated and may recover if Chinese data show strength.  However, the US-China trade threats remain on China and  China appears to be adopting a weaker currency policy to absorb the risks to its economy and a counter to the US trade threat, so we continue to see this weighing on Asian currencies more generally.

USD/JPY has broken recent highs and JPY is exhibiting weakness that may reflect broader issues as discussed in our AmpGFX report (https://ampgfxcapital.com/reports/qe-come-back-and-regional-forces-drive-jpy/)



Long half unit GBP/JPY at 148.21; s/l 146.43; t/p 149.98

Long half unit of EUR/AUD at 1.5824; s/l 1.5673; t/p 1.7234

Short half unit NZD/CAD at 0.8914; s/l 0.9013; t/p 0.8513

Short half unit NZD/CAD at 0.8914; s/l 0.9013; t/p 0.8513


Our Capital at Risk: (124bp GBP/JPY), (101bp EUR/AUD); (208bp NZD/CAD)

By setting an initial stop loss of 146.43,  our (AmpGFX) percentage loss would be 1.20% on GBP/JPY. Based on our trade size this represents 124bp or 1.24% of our trading capital.

In the past, I have provided some guidance on the relative size of our trades using “units”.  I am working on providing a clearer understanding of the actual amount of capital we have at risk, as reflected in the results we report on our website.

How much capital an investor will allocate to each trade will depend on their capital base (assets under management),  risk tolerance, and how each new trade might be considered to add to the existing risk in the portfolio.

As an investor or portfolio manager, you have to decide how to size your trade, and whether to trade at all. We are not providing any advice on these matters.  To confirm we are licenced to provide only “general advice.”  Please see our disclaimer and Financial Services Guide for more information.


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Greg Gibbs,
Founder, Analyst and PM
Amplifying Global FX Capital Pty Ltd