Short EUR/USD (from 12-Mar to 13-Mar)
Real-Time AmpGFX – closed EUR and TYM8 (all) positions (Tue 3/13/2018 10:06 AM MT)
I bought one-third unit on TYM8 at 120-10
I bought half-unit EUR/USD at 1.2399
Comment
The CPI data show some deceleration in several core underlying measures, (trimmed mean, weighted median, Core Sticky).
The special election tonight could significantly weaken the USD if the Democrat candidate wins Pennsylvania 18th District Special Election may be seen as a sign that the Democrats have a chance of flipping the balance of power in the House and Senate in November, raising the chances of more political turmoil between Congress and the Administration, including the risk of impeachment.
The Democrat candidate, Lamb, has been on a rising trend in the polls, and has pulled just ahead in recent polls, despite the tariff announcements that should have boosted support for Trump in the steel making state.
Real-Time AmpGFX – EUR/USD order (Mon 3/12/2018 4:08 PM MT)
See latest AmpGFX report for further discussion. (Cracks widening in EUR’s foundations)
Positions
Short one-third unit TYM8 at 120-10; s/l 120-23+
Short half-unit EUR/USD at 1.2328; 1.2427; t/p 1.1928
Real-Time AmpGFX – Sold EUR/USD (Mon 3/12/2018 11:41 AM MT)
I sold half unit EUR/USD at 1.2328
Comment
EUR has underperformed most currencies since the ECB meeting last week.
Euro equities are under-performing
EUR/USD yield spreads; long, short and real are at new lows
Euro inflation expectations 5yr5yr forward have ebbed in the last month, but remain more elevated in the US
US talking tougher on trade with EU
Positions
Short one-third unit TYM8 at 120-10; s/l 120-23+
Short half-unit EUR/USD at 1.2328