Short EUR/USD (From 23-Apr to 10-May)
S/l orders triggered in short AUD/USD (before US CPI) and short EUR/USD (after the US CPI) … both trades closed in profit (10-May)
Real-Time AmpGFX – Order Update (Tue 5/8/2018 1:53 PM MT)
Positions
Short half unit EUR/USD at 1.2206; s/l 1.1943; t/p 1.1788
Short half unit AUD/USD at 0.7517; s/l 0.7488
Short half unit EUR/JPY at 130.77; s/l 130.23; t/p 128.28
Profit was taken at the limit order left on the other half unit of EUR/USD short ( 1-May)
Real-Time AmpGFX – EUR orders, lowering stop loss (Thu 4/26/2018 11:45 AM MT)
EUR traded down to 1.2160s before and after the ECB meeting, before finally breaking lower. This was also around the previous lows in the sideways range since January. This should now be significant resistance for EUR/USD.
I expect EUR/USD to find more significant support just ahead of 1.2000. This was a middle of the consolidation in early Jan and around the highs in Aug/Sep last year.
Positions
Short half unit EUR/USD at 1.2234; s/l 1.2178; t/p 1.2028
Short half unit EUR/USD at 1.2206; s/l 1.2178
Real-Time AmpGFX – sold EUR/USD to add to short (Mon 4/23/2018 11:55 AM)
Sold half unit EUR/USD at 1.2206 to add to short position
Comment
Broad gains in the USD continue through the US session, Some moves are accelerating as the break key supports. USD/JPY is leading gains despite no change in yields and flat equities. Suggests dollar strength developing its own momentum.
EUR/USD is below its two previous lows, so threating to accelerate its fall
Positions
Short half unit EUR/USD at 1.2234; s/l 1.2323
Short half unit EUR/USD at 1.2206; s/l 1.2323
Real-Time AmpGFX – sold EUR/USD (Mon 4/23/2018 6:53 AM MT)
Sold half unit of EUR/USD at 1.2234
Comment
USD gains have become more broad-based in recent weeks and the first move in Asia on Monday extended that trend with significant falls in Asia EM currencies.
The flows into EM markets, even as US yields were rising, over the last year helped propel a broadly weaker USD.
USD has become significantly disconnected from its yield spreads over the last year.
If equity flows are no longer dominating, then we may see some reconnection with yield spreads
The ECB meeting is likely to provide little further guidance and emphasise the need for persistence and patience, while highlighting risks to the inflation outlook, including from a stronger EUR.
We discussed our views on USD in our AmpGFX report released earlier today in Asia.
A pervasive rise in yields may propel further USD gains
Positions
Short half unit EUR/USD at 1.2234; s/l 1.2323