Order update – GBP, EUR/NZD, AUD/NZD
Positions Short half unit GBP/USD at 1.2879; s/l 1.2888; t/p 1.2405 Long half unit EUR/NZD at 1.5549; s/l 1.5633; t/p 1.6448 Long half unit AUD/NZD at 1.0432; s/l 1.0523; t/p 1.0718 Comment In weaker USD environment that appears to have followed revelations about Trump Jr, I have moved GBP/USD lower, close to market, fearing […]
Weak NZ data, Upbeat Aust Biz survey, Strong Euro data, Dovish BoE and Fed, Trump drama
Weak NZ data NZ retail sales were weaker than expected. This is made more potent by the fact that it appears to have received a significant boost from hospitality spending related to the Lions Rugby tour. Retail sales growth slowed to 3.8%y/y in June, a low since May-2015. Core sales growth, excluding autos and fuel, […]
sold GBP/USD
Sold half unit GBP/USD at 1.2879 Positions Short half unit GBP/USD at 1.2879; s/l 1.3058; t/p 1.2405 Long half unit EUR/NZD at 1.5549; s/l 1.5533 Long half unit AUD/NZD at 1.0432; s/l 1.0343; t/p 1.0618 Comment As mentioned in my report on Friday, A broad range of activity indicators were weak in the UK […]
Key economic developments – strong US jobs, strong Canada jobs, strong Eurozone IP, weak UK activity, Japan wages growth, solid Australian PMIs.
US jobs growth momentum remains strong US jobs growth six-month average 180K, three-month average 194K. ISM employment indicators recovered from recent lows in April (51.4 & 52.0) to 55.8 and 57.2 in June for non-mfg and mfg respectively. Unemployment and broader under-employment measures rose from their lows in May, stabilizing after a sharp fall this […]
Fed minutes lean dovish
The FOMC minutes from the 14 June policy meeting appear relatively dovish compared to the rate hike and less dovish presentation by Yellen at the time of the meeting. They indicate that the low inflation outcomes were a cause for concern. And some reluctance to hike rates once the Fed begins its unwind of its […]
bought AUD/NZD
Bought half unit of AUD/NZD at 1.0432 Comment Australian economic data have improved in recent months. The AUD has been knocked down by an RBA statement that was essentially unchanged from its June statement. It simply chose to hold the line, but the risk is still there that it will need to warn the market […]
View update, GBP vulnerable, Canada business survey seals the deal, AUD/NZD may be a buy
View update Since yesterday, one of our EUR/NZD stops was triggered (in profit), we remain long EUR/USD and EUR/NZD. Price action appears corrective to end the week after a strong run higher in EUR. Eurozone inflation data beat expectations, and strength more generally in the Eurozone economies continues to support EUR. There is a risk […]
view (AUD,NZD,EUR,CAD) and order update (rolling up EUR/NZD stop loss)
Looking at AUD/USD chart, it is testing a major resistance area; if it were to break it would appear to have put in a major long term bottom and appear more bullish. This places a lot of interest in the RBA policy meeting next week, even the slightest hint that they are following the lead […]
view update; raising EUR stop loss
EUR has had a volatile correction. There were ECB official comments that said the market over-played the hawkish parts of the speech yesterday from Draghi. We agree, the speech was not that different from the last ECB meeting. As we discussed in the AmpGFX report yesterday, he was relatively balanced but gave an indication that […]
EUR/NZD trade and comments and orders
Tue 6/27/2017 5:27 PM Real Time AmpGFX – order update Positions Long half unit EUR/USD at 1.1208; s/l 1.1248 Long half unit EUR/NZD at 1.5474; s/l 1,5473 Long half unit EUR/NZD at 1.5549; s/l 1.5473 Comment The long EUR position was taken after further signs of stalling US economic reports (durable goods, Chicago Fed National […]