Thoughts on EUR, USD and AUD
January 24th, 2019 Relative weak Euro and Asia data. Stable US economic reports, but risks towards slowing. The risk of a turn down in the USD remains. Australian bank funding costs back to highs of last year. High sensitivity in the AUD towards housing and global risks. Australian Doom loop? AUD to remain more […]
GBP firming as no-deal Brexit prospect fades
The GBP is showing strength as the market is assessing the odds of a no deal Brexit as falling. There are still a variety of possible outcomes including a new election, a referendum, and a deal that is either close to the proposal by PM May or softer. However a no-deal Brexit now looks very […]
Bought EUR/USD call option
We have planned for some time to change our research service, with the intention of implementation at the beginning of this year. As such this will be the last Real-Time briefing where I share our specific trading strategy. Real-Time briefings will continue, but will be used to provide more frequent updates on our views and […]
Long AUD/USD (From 31-Dec to 4-Jan)
We were stopped out of our long AUD/USD position below, thankfully before the flash crash kicked off on Thursday morning in Asia. So there was no extraordinary slippage. Real-Time AmpGFX – Bought AUD/USD (Sun 12/30/2018 4:30 PM MT) Bought one unit AUD/USD at .7058 Comment Trump’s tweet over the weekend should raise hopes that a […]
Long EUR/USD ( From 18-Dec to 19-Dec) Expecting no Fed rate hike
Real-Time – Sold EUR/USD to close long position after FOMC (Wed 12/19/2018 12:27 PM MT) Sold one unit EUR/USD at 1.1383 Comment The Fed raised rates as widely expected, and lowered its median expectations for hikes in 2019 from three to two hikes. And then one further hike in 2020. As I discussed in my […]
Long AUD & EUR vs USD (From 7-Dec to 13-Dec) Views on Fed, RBA & ECB
Stopped out of AUD on 14-Dec after weaker than expected Chinese economic reports and a weaker than expected Eurozone PMI data sparked broad fears for the global economy and a fall in global equities. Real-time AmpGFX – Bought AUD/USD to add to long position (Wed 12/12/2018 8:01 AM MT) Bought one unit of AUD/USD at […]
Long AUD/NZD (From 4-Dec to 5-Dec)
Real-Time AmpGFX – sold AUD vs USD and NZD to square positions (Wed 12/5/2018 8:53 AM MT) We sold AUD/USD on our stop-loss order, and decided to also close our long AUD/NZD position at 1.0520. Comment The Australian GDP was obviously a major negative for the AUD well below expected and a significant downward […]
Long AUD/USD (From 29 Nov to 5-Dec)
Real-Time AmpGFX – sold AUD vs USD and NZD to square positions (Wed 12/5/2018 8:53 AM MT) We sold AUD/USD on our stop-loss order, and decided to also close our long AUD/NZD position at 1.0520. Comment The Australian GDP was obviously a major negative for the AUD well below expected and a significant downward […]
Long EUR/USD (From 27-Nov to 30-Nov)
Stop loss raised to 1.1223 from 1.1183 on 29-Nov (noted in the AUD/USD trade briefing). new stop-loss triggered on 30-Nov (trade is small profit) Real-Time AmpGFX – Bought EUR/USD (Tue 11/27/2018 11:08 PM MT) Bought one unit of EUR/USD at 1.1296 Comment We want to take a short USD position ahead of Powell’s speech tomorrow. […]
Powell reaffirms cautious tone
Powell’s speech was mostly about financial stability, but he opened with some words on monetary policy. In light of the recent comments from Powell himself, Clarida and other Fed members, suggesting more caution on the path of future hikes, Powell’s text today is consistent with this less hawkish tone. Powell started by presenting the current […]