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Long AUD/USD (26-Nov)

Posted on November 26th, 2018

Real-Time AmpGFX – sold AUD/USD on breaking news from WSJ (Mon 11/26/2018 2:18 PM MT) Sold one unit of AUD at 0.7226 WSJ breaking news, Trump highly unlikely to accept China request to halt a planned increase in tariffs to 25%. Part of my reason for buying AUD was my expectation that we may see […]

Long Gold/USD (From 19-Nov to 26-Nov)

Posted on November 26th, 2018

Real-Time AmpGFX – Sold Gold/USD to close long position (Mon 11/26/2018 9:13 AM MT) Sold one unit of Gold/USD at 1222.98   Comment We can see a risk positive tone returning to the market this week on the Fed retaining a softer tone on rates policy outlook and Trump-Xi G20 meeting generating positive comments on […]

A look at AUD vs commodity prices and other snippets

Posted on November 20th, 2018

Tuesday has been characterized by deep falls in commodity prices: oil 7%, copper 1.5%, aluminium 0.7%, iron ore 2.9%, steel futures 4%, coking coal 1.6%, thermal coal 0.1%, LNG futures -1.9% Even though overall commodity prices might still seem high relative to the AUD, the falls are deep in the energy space, and steel prices […]

Long AUD/USD (From 16-Nov to 20-Nov)

Posted on November 20th, 2018

We were stopped out of the remaining long AUD/USD position on 20-Nov Real-Time AmpGFX – Sold AUD/USD (half position), bought Gold/USD (Mon 11/19/2018 11:15 AM MT) Sold one unit of AUD/USD at 0.7282 to close half long position Bought one unit Gold/USD at 1222.75   Comment The Pence and Xi speeches, and lack of communique […]

Assessing upside for AUD, and a range of global risks

Posted on November 13th, 2018

We are toying with the idea of buying AUD either against the USD or the NZD.  But broader uncertainty is keeping us on the sidelines for now.   Potential for strong wages and labour data Wed/Thur Labour market data in Australia, New Zealand and a number of major economies have tended to be stronger than […]

thoughts on AUD and NZD in light of recent events

Posted on November 8th, 2018

We were stopped out of our long AUD/NZD after the stronger than expected NZ labour data on Wednesday. We were surprised at the strength of the data, like everyone else. In particular, it seemed out of line with the persistently weaker than expected business surveys over the last year.  The RBNZ was also surprised by […]

Long AUD/NZD (From 1-Nov to 6-Nov)

Posted on November 6th, 2018

We were stopped out of our long AUD/NZD after the stronger than expected NZ labour data on Wednesday 6-Nov Real-Time AmpGFX – Bought AUD/NZD (Thu 11/1/2018 11:28 PM MT) Bought one unit AUD/NZD at 1.0834   Comment AUD is benefiting from relatively strong commodity prices and new export volumes of natural gas. This was born […]

Long GBP/USD (31-Oct)

Posted on October 31st, 2018

Real-Time AmpGFX – Sold GBP/USD to close opportunistic long (Wed 10/31/2018 11:19 PM MT) Sold one unit GBP/USD at 1.2843   Comment There has been little follow through on the Times article, and it is short on details.  It may relate to stop-gap measures to maintain access to clearing markets after Brexit, which is not […]

Bought Gold and JPY vs USD (From 24-Oct to 31-Oct)

Posted on October 31st, 2018

Long Gold was stopped out on 31-Oct Short USD/JPY was stopped out on 30-Oct Real-Time AmpGFX – Bought gold and JPY vs USD to re-establish (Mon 10/29/2018 1:01 PM MT) Bought half unit of Gold/USD at 1227.94 Sold half unit USD/JPY  at 112.35   Comment We are seeing the risk turning against the USD, particularly […]

Short NZD/USD (From 22-Oct to 23-Oct)

Posted on October 23rd, 2018

Real-Time AmpGFX – squaring short EUR and NZD positions (Tue 10/23/2018 4:50 AM MT) Bought one unit EUR at 1.1475 Bought one unit NZD at 0.6563   Comment At risk of appearing indecisive,  I have decided to close both short positions in NZD and EUR. Price action has un-nerved me, with the broad weakness in […]