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EUR and JPY at key technical supports

Posted on October 23rd, 2015

The ECB has shocked the market suggesting a large further expansion of its stimulus plan including a deeper dive into negative interest rates is likely at its next meeting in December.  This will put intense pressure on the BoJ to up its policy easing measures, intensifying the focus on its policy meeting next week, at […]

A more permanent rise in global risk premiums

Posted on October 22nd, 2015

Commodity markets are leading some recent weakness in global asset markets.  Oil and iron ore are sitting near key supports and how they perform around these levels may be important for near term direction in global markets and commodity currencies. Market sentiment remains mixed and asset prices are not clearly out of line with the […]

RBA may link rate cuts to progress on financial stability

Posted on October 21st, 2015

The RBA is likely to await clearer evidence that banks are tightening lending conditions for mortgage lending before cutting rates. Rather than cutting in November, it will probably make this link clearer.  Weaker Chinese industrial data and soft metals markets should keep the AUD recovery in check, but domestic indicators are providing support and the […]

China rotation and stabilization

Posted on October 20th, 2015

The Chinese data supported some rotation out of commodity assets towards consumer and service sector assets, but overall risk appetite remained stable as growth momentum in China appeared to stabilise and global interest rate trends are lower over the last month.  A very strong USA housing market index and Fed speakers sticking to the party […]

Eyes towards China

Posted on October 19th, 2015

The markets are consolidating recent moves awaiting the key economic reports from China in particular today.  The ECB is toning down expectations for any hints on policy direction at its meeting later this week.  Mester at the Fed and Forbes at the BoE keep rate hike expectations alive, but market views are mixed.  Rate cut […]

EUR funding currency attributes to return

Posted on October 16th, 2015

Some better US data on the important employment and inflation fronts and some more supportive Fed comments have helped stabilize the USD.  With mostly housing data out next week, the strong part of the US economy, it is worth looking to sell other potential funding currencies in a risk positive environment.  EUR looks heavy after […]

USD topping out, Opportune for RBA cut

Posted on October 15th, 2015

The accelerated broad fall in the USD cannot be ignored and is consistent with recent moderation in USA activity. It may be a bit oversold near term, but the focus should be to sell rallies for the time being.  The Australian employment report was ho-hum and the RBA may see November as an opportune time […]