RBA and RBNZ may reveal doubts

Posted on August 3rd, 2018

In a follow-up note from our report last week (Major commodity currencies may diverge – CAD set to shine) we preview the RBA and RBNZ policy meetings next week and see risks of dovish surprises in both.  Business surveys have ebbed, particularly in New Zealand.  The Australian economy is showing more resilience, but risks from […]

Major commodity currencies may diverge – CAD set to shine

Posted on July 29th, 2018

A lot is happening in global markets this week.  No doubt you are reading much about key central bank meetings in Japan and the UK, and key data releases including Euro GDP and CPI.  However, we have decided to hone in on the AUD, NZD and CAD which present there own opportunities in a market […]

AUD – what gives? – risks and strengths

Posted on July 18th, 2018

The AUD faces a number of downside risks; these include a weakening housing market, a persistent jump in Australian bank funding costs, tightening credit conditions for Australian borrowers, tightening shadow-finance in China, a slowing Chinese economy, and threats related to a trade war between the US and China. However, to date, China is managing its […]

QE come-back and regional forces drive JPY

Posted on July 13th, 2018

The rise in USD/JPY is surprising many, breaking away from US yields and perceptions that JPY should act as a safe haven in times of global market uncertainty.  However, the USD/JPY 10-year yield advantage is around a high since 2007 and consistent with a weaker JPY in a broad sense.  JPY assets have been behaving […]

Bank of Canada may pick up the pace

Posted on July 10th, 2018

The market is on board for a hike this week but appears to have been lulled into thinking that’s it until next year.  However, the Bank of Canada has policy set still well below neutral, despite an economy and inflation largely on target and growth above trend.  More likely is that they come off their […]

Fresh UK Political Turmoil

Posted on July 10th, 2018

I posted a bullish GBP report on Monday, based mostly on the Chequers agreement, but also on the improved UK economic reports and BoE comments last week. GBP may be in a sweet spot – AmpGFXcapital.com Considering the fast-moving developments on Monday, with the resignations of the Brexit and Foreign Secretaries, Davis and Johnson, from […]

GBP may be in a sweet spot

Posted on July 9th, 2018

GBP has made gains since Friday and may be placed to extend these in coming weeks after recent stronger than expected UK economic reports, upbeat comments from BoE Governor Carney, and a political win for PM May that should help ease Brexit uncertainty in the near term. Trade tensions remain fraught between the US and […]

Shifting Trump trade rhetoric may support EUR and CAD against Asian currencies

Posted on July 6th, 2018

Recent news reports suggest that the Trump administration may be looking to cool its trade rhetoric towards Europe and NAFTA, while trade tensions with China remain high and may increase further.  European automaker share prices recovered significantly from beaten-down levels, while the Chinese share market and Asian equities more generally remain relatively weak.  This may […]

Gold Confounds, A New Era of CNY Flexibility, Inflation Pressure Builds in the USA

Posted on July 3rd, 2018

The fall in gold may make sense against the stronger USD.  However, it is odd to see it underperform other G10 currencies in an environment of higher global market volatility and increasing inflation pressure in the US.  The steep fall in CNY may reflect a new policy era under a new central bank governor, allowing […]

Negative feedback from US protectionist policies may boost gold

Posted on June 26th, 2018

The rapid demise in Chinese assets on Monday on rehashed news that the US is set to announce investment restrictions, despite RRR cuts, reveals a deeper vulnerability in investor confidence in China.  The US equity market started to show signs of negative feedback from the US administration’s protectionist policies.  The remarkably contradictory comments by Navarro […]