Even though the Fed’s QT starts gradually, the market may react to the prospect of it increasing in pace and resulting in a significant additional supply of bonds over the next two to three years. ECB and BoJ QE may have delayed the impact of impending QT on yields, but the ECB is expected to […]
The US administration is all about tax reform, sending a disciplined message, and approaching Democrats to gain more bipartisan support for its agenda. US yields have rebounded from a low for the year at the end of last week. They may continue to rise in light of the stronger than expected US economic data in […]
The Australian business survey was mixed, but showed significant improvement in labour components, suggesting upside risk for the Australia labour report out on Thursday. The latest New Zealand poll suggested that the chances of a return in the National government have increased greatly. However, a closer look at the trends and betting odds suggests the […]
USD had a reprieve so far this week after hitting new lows for the year last week. However, EM currencies, in particular, have held most of their recent gains and retain their uptrend. We see some risk of a correction in EUR from an over-bought condition. After two weeks of consolidation in AUD/NZD, we see […]
USA politics appears to be descending steadily into a quagmire of dysfunction, contributing to a weaker and more uncertain US economic outlook. The USD has clearly broken its base since 2015, leaving investors wondering where the bottom is. The sliding USD has developed a life of its own that may be hard to stop. The […]
The BoC rate decision tomorrow is a line ball call. The output gap model suggests getting a hurry on because the economy is moving into excess demand and rates are far below neutral. Recent consumer, housing, and labor market data also support getting on with hikes. Some more recent, albeit modest, ebbing in business activity […]
Q2 Australian construction work done surged on Wednesday by a record. While lumpy work at an LNG project drove this increase, the data also showed strong growth in public infrastructure spending. The capital expenditure survey increased for the year ahead by the biggest margin since the mining boom; this time led by the service sector. […]
North Korea and Hurricane Harvey are dominating attention in the market. The market is bracing for some disruption to the US economy. Gasoline prices in the US have surged for the front two contracts, adding to near term US economic disruption and uncertainty. US rates and yields are off their lows on Tuesday, but are […]
The persistent bear-trend in the USD this year showed its claws last week with fresh lows in the Bloomberg dollar index since January-2015. It’s not just about the rebound in the EUR, EM currencies and equities are significantly out-performing. Monetary policy is no longer diverging, the Fed is shifting from rate rises to quantitative tightening, […]
I will keep it brief; this is a quick comment from the road, as I am on a marketing trip this week and next in New York/Boston/London spreading the word about AmpGFX. Let me know if I have neglected to reach out to you, and you want to see me, I may be able to […]