The market is on board for a hike this week but appears to have been lulled into thinking that’s it until next year. However, the Bank of Canada has policy set still well below neutral, despite an economy and inflation largely on target and growth above trend. More likely is that they come off their […]
I posted a bullish GBP report on Monday, based mostly on the Chequers agreement, but also on the improved UK economic reports and BoE comments last week. GBP may be in a sweet spot – AmpGFXcapital.com Considering the fast-moving developments on Monday, with the resignations of the Brexit and Foreign Secretaries, Davis and Johnson, from […]
GBP has made gains since Friday and may be placed to extend these in coming weeks after recent stronger than expected UK economic reports, upbeat comments from BoE Governor Carney, and a political win for PM May that should help ease Brexit uncertainty in the near term. Trade tensions remain fraught between the US and […]
Recent news reports suggest that the Trump administration may be looking to cool its trade rhetoric towards Europe and NAFTA, while trade tensions with China remain high and may increase further. European automaker share prices recovered significantly from beaten-down levels, while the Chinese share market and Asian equities more generally remain relatively weak. This may […]
The fall in gold may make sense against the stronger USD. However, it is odd to see it underperform other G10 currencies in an environment of higher global market volatility and increasing inflation pressure in the US. The steep fall in CNY may reflect a new policy era under a new central bank governor, allowing […]
The rapid demise in Chinese assets on Monday on rehashed news that the US is set to announce investment restrictions, despite RRR cuts, reveals a deeper vulnerability in investor confidence in China. The US equity market started to show signs of negative feedback from the US administration’s protectionist policies. The remarkably contradictory comments by Navarro […]
Some upside risk for GBP after the BoE firmed plans to hike in August and PM May keeps hold of the Brexit reins. AUD looks beaten down on weak EM assets. However, the rumour mill suggests that the USA and China may restart trade talks. Australian bank shares have rebounded from their lows, mining companies […]
Trade war escalates and the horse bolts in Asian EM assets. Uncertainty is likely to remain elevated for some time, keeping Asian EM markets in a weaker trend. It seems unlikely that the trade threat will de-escalate. In fact, the risk is high that it ratchets up with the US yet to announce restrictions on […]
Every Fed rate hike over the last year and more has resulted in a weaker USD, suggesting the Fed has a habit of delivering ‘dovish’ hikes. There is every reason to expect the same this week. The May policy minutes sent a number of dovish signals; concern over a flattening yield curve, ambivalence on the […]
ECB’s Praet signalled that the ECB is thinking about withdrawing from net asset purchases soon. We should expect a plan at the next Governing Council meeting on 14-June for the APP beyond its current completion date in September. Praet’s upbeat view on the Eurozone’s growth and progress on convergence to the ECB’s inflation target made […]